"The days of cheap interest rates encouraging utopian visions of a world based on renewable energy, equality, and autonomous central banks are over. In 2023, the global economy will enter a period known as "War Economy," in which national economic benefits and self-sufficiency are prioritized over participation in the global economy." Saxo Bank, which has just released its forecast on the black swans for the coming year, is that confident.
Black swans are occurrences that have a large social and economic impact yet were seemingly unpredictable beforehand. However, after their occurrence, these events are studied and, through the benefit of hindsight, are revealed to have been predictable all along.
Here are the ten "crazy" forecasts from a Danish bank:
1. A new "Manhattan Project" worth a trillion dollars is the result of a multibillion-dollar coalition's efforts.
The world's wealthiest have banded together to fund a research and development effort on a scale not seen since the Manhattan Project produced the first atomic bomb for the United States.
2 Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, resigns.
After the 2022 election, President Macron is backed into a hole by the stalemate in French politics and the ascent of Marine Le Pen.
After central banks are unable to rein rampant inflation, gold prices skyrocket to $3,000.
After markets and central banks recognize that inflation is not temporary and that prices will remain high for longer, gold's price skyrockets above $3,000.
The European Union develops its own military in
Given the persisting threats in the area and the United States military's unwillingness to play its traditional position as global defender, the European Union has agreed to establish its own military to safeguard itself from events like the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
5. By the year 2030, one nation has pledged to end all beef production.
One government decides to put not only a high tariff on meat, but also to restrict domestic production altogether, in order to become one of the world's leaders on the road to net-zero emissions.
There will be a vote in the United Kingdom on June 23 to reject Brexit, which will be point number six.
The United Kingdom is in the midst of political turmoil that will culminate in a vote to revoke Brexit as a result of the recent economic downturn and significant domestic pressure.
Global pricing controls to restrain government-mandated inflation
Rationing and price controls have a long history in wartime economics. And it's no different now, as governments impose severe price regulations that have unforeseen repercussions.
To trade in alternative reserve assets, OPEC+ and "Chindia" have agreed to exit the IMF.
In countries that do not consider the United States an ally, the fluctuation of the United States dollar as a result of sanctions against Russia has caused significant unrest. They decide to exit the IMF and establish their own reserve asset as a means of escape.
In order to give Japan time to restructure its financial system, the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Japanese yen has been pegged at $200.
Because of the difficulties the yen encountered in 2022, the Bank of Japan now works to keep the yen from falling in value. Japan will reboot its whole banking system if its current efforts are not sustainable. As public uproar over rising inflation reaches a crescendo, the USD/JPY soars to $160 and $170. As the USD/JPY exchange rate approaches $200, the Japanese government and central bank intervene.
Private investment is wiped out after a prohibition on tax havens.
Increased attention to national interests and the power of sovereign countries to assert themselves is a result of the conflict economy. So, the OECD countries focus on tax havens and ban them completely.
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