The U.S. Treasury yields went up, which helped the dollar go up a little bit on Thursday. Investors were weighing the outlook for Federal Reserve policy against the chance that high interest rates could cause a recession.
The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England will all be making important decisions next week.
The most important question for traders and investors is whether or not inflation has reached its highest point. If it has, policymakers will have more room to raise interest rates more slowly over the next few months.
Next week, one day before the Fed's policy meeting on Dec. 14, the monthly consumer inflation rate for the U.S. will be released. This could be a key factor in setting longer-term expectations for monetary policy.
"Right now, U.S. CPI is the only data release that seems to really matter for the direction of the dollar as a whole," said Adam Cole, a currency strategist at RBC. "Until we get those central bank meetings and one key monthly U.S. data release, not much is happening," he added.
Most of the major currencies stayed about the same against the dollar. The euro was worth $1.0507 against the dollar, which was the same as before. The pound, on the other hand, fell 0.3% to $1.2171.
The yen, which is very sensitive to changes in U.S. Treasury yields, dropped 0.25 percent to 136.90, giving up some of the 0.4% gain it made on Wednesday.
Since late October, when it hit a 15-year high, the yield on a 10-year Treasury has gone down almost every day, losing almost a full percentage point. In fact, it has taken back about half of the rise that happened between the four-month lows in August and the peak in October, which was around 4.34%.
The price of a barrel of oil has dropped below $80 for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine at the end of February. This is because people are worried about how much a slowing economy will affect the demand for energy around the world.
Brent crude futures have fallen to around $78, down almost half from their 14-year high of $139.13 in early March. According to the American Automobile Association, gas prices at the pump in the United States hit a record high of $5.116 in June. They are now at $3.329, which is 0.4% less than what they were at this time last year.
Since the price of energy has gone down, so have market expectations for inflation. The 10-year breakeven inflation spread, which is calculated by taking the yield on an inflation-linked Treasury and subtracting it from the yield on a nominal 10-year note, is only 2.27 percent. In April, it was above 3 percent.
The dollar's value has dropped by 6.2% so far this quarter because of these two factors and because people are less sure that the Fed will keep raising interest rates at the same fast pace.
According to data from Refinitiv, this puts the greenback on track for its worst quarterly performance since the third quarter of 2010, when it dropped 8.5%, and its worst fourth-quarter performance since 2004.
Lee Hardman, a currency strategist at MUFG, said in a note, "The price action continues to show that market participants are becoming less worried about risks of inflation going up and more worried about risks of global growth going down."
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